Monthly Market Update - Comparing Quarters

 

In comparing the third quarter of last year to this year, we are seeing very good signs of market improvement.  Median and average prices in Chittenden County were up about 7.5%. This is great news. The median price for condo sales was down 6.5% but the average was up 4.5%. The number of day on market stayed approximately the same in single family homes and condos from last year to this year: 100 days average for single family homes and 88 days average for condos.

In the Franklin County towns of Fairfax, Georgia, Highgate, St. Albans Town and City, we saw an increase of about 10% in both median and average sales prices. We are ecstatic to see this market improvement. It shows us that people are willing to drive farther outside of Chittenden County to get the homes they want. The average sales price is $125,000 lower in those Franklin County towns compared to Chittenden County. So, a great “bang for the buck” in Franklin County.

Our friends in the Grand Isle towns of South Hero, North Hero and Grand Isle are still experiencing low numbers of sales so it is difficult to make market statements from only 13 sales (14 last year for the same time period.) However, if we take those numbers, the market increased in both median and average prices due to some higher priced sales this year. We hope this is a trend that continues!

People ask, “Is it a buyers’ or sellers’ market?” The question can be answered most accurately when looking at individual towns as sales vary from town-to-town. But if we look at Chittenden County as a whole, there is a 6.5 month supply of houses on the market and a 4.5 month supply of condos. This means that in theory if no new homes came on the market, it would take 6.5 months to empty the supply of houses and 4.5 months to empty the supply of condos.  This is called the “absorption rate.” A five to seven month supply indicates a “level market.” If we had less than a five month supply it would be a sellers’ market; over seven months is a buyers’ market. It will be interesting to see what the data is at the end of this year. These figures definitely show an improvement.  

We are optimistic that the combination of low interest rates and buyer perception that the bottom was reached will continue to boost housing sales. We must always be cautious in our analysis because we want to wait to gather data over a longer period of time, but comparing third quarters, we are feeling extremely encouraged.